For two weeks Iran deliberated how to retaliate for the Israeli strike in Damascus. Its leaders had hoped to find a Goldilocks option that would placate their domestic audience and deter Israel without triggering an even bigger Israeli reprisal. After decades of fighting Israel through proxies, this was the first time Iran struck at Israel from its own soil a “shadow war” no longer. The Iranian strike on Israel may have squandered those gains in three ways. First is the blow to its deterrence. Iran did not want to cause mass casualties in Israel. Will Israel retaliate ?

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