There is no escaping the squeeze ahead for America’s economy. Surging food and petrol prices are eating into people’s spending. In April consumer prices were 8.3% higher than a year earlier. Even excluding food and energy prices, annual inflation is 6.2%. Supply-chain problems could flare up for as long as war rages in Ukraine and China sticks to its zero-covid policy. The American labour market is red-hot, with nearly two job openings for every unemployed worker in March, the most since 1950, when data were first collected. Do you think that recession is looming in America by 2025?

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