In the years since they originally signed the un Framework Convention on Climate Change (unfccc), which was negotiated in 1992, the countries of the world had not committed themselves to a temperature target. Part of what mattered about Paris was that they were finally going to do so. The limit most countries, including all the big emitters, had in mind was 2°C. In the years since Paris, the 1.5°C target went from something to be pursued to something totemised. A stretch goal has been widely treated as a paramount one. The process was strengthened by a report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc) in 2018 which compared what the world might expect at 1.5°C with what 2°C would look like. Will the world miss the totemic 1.5°C climate target?

