In late 2022 widespread demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a woman who wore her hijab improperly, appeared to be close to toppling the regime. In the end it was the protests, not clerical rule, that died out. Iran’s diplomatic and economic isolation is also easing. The Islamic Republic is preoccupied with its transition to a new generation of leaders, on the face of it, the war in Gaza has been good for Iran’s clerical regime. First, its ally, Hamas, proved itself horrifyingly more effective than most observers had assumed in its attack on Israel on October 7th.  The Houthis, Iran’s proxies in Yemen, have attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea and fired missiles with a range of 800km, allowing Iran to threaten trade through the Suez canal, much as it already dominates passage to the Persian Gulf. Do you think that there could be a possibility of regime change ?

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