Western officials have been talking up Russia’s ammo crunch for months. In September they said that Russia had turned to North Korea for replenishment. In November Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, spoke of “significant shortages”. At a briefing on December 12th a senior American defence official said that, at current rates of use, Russia could sustain “fully serviceable” tube and rocket artillery ammunition only until early 2023. Is Russia running out of shells?

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